Dow: Brace for Impact

The immortal words of Captain Chelsea "Sully" Sullenberger, just moments before landing his commuter-filled airplane in what is known as "the Miracle on the Hudson", now seems appropriate. As of this writing there has been no progress on avoiding the so-called "fiscal cliff." Many economists predict this will trigger another recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to be in the final stages of forming a "Head and Shoulders Top." This is a bearish formation that indicates the index will move lower. The approximate distance between the "head" and the "right shoulder" indicates how far the Dow will correct. It appears we will see a regression to the 200-day moving average line which is about 12,000. From there it is anyone's guess. The next support level is around Dow 10,500. Historically, the market has not crashed in January but we have seen some significant moves downward during that month. This could create some tremendous buying opportunities over the next few weeks.

Note: The above is for information purposes only. Any decision to buy, sell, or hold any specific investment should be reviewed with your own personal portfolio manager.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

"But you, O Bethlehem Ephrathah, are only a small village among all the people of Judah. Yet a ruler of Israel will come from you, one whose origins are from eternity past." -Micah 5:2

The above verse was written about 700 BC by the prophet Micah. It predicts the coming of the long awaited Messiah for the Jewish people and the world. Jesus was born in Bethlehem among poor people, from the lineage of King David. He grew up and later established a three year ministry around the Galilee region of the Mediterranean. His life on earth, death, and resurrection fulfilled about 400 Old Testament prophecies which were made over the centuries about Him. The mathematical odds of someone doing all these things are too great to even figure-- in fact, mathematically impossible to fulfill for someone who was not the Messiah. Yes, we can debate whether Jesus was actually born on December 25th, and when the Magi actually arrived, but the historical fact remains. The evidence of His Lordship is indisputable.

If you have never accepted Jesus as the Savior of this world, please take a moment now to ask Him into your heart. No matter what you have done, He will accept you into His family as His child! And you may then enjoy the full inheritance which Jesus, the Messiah brings!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!


This article was reprinted from December 26, 2009.

Fiscal Cliff Looms

The market traded sideways this week as everyone listened to the ongoing reports from Washington concerning our budget negotiations. A "fiscal cliff" is looming if the two sides cannot reach an agreement. This term "fiscal cliff" was coined in reference to automatic cuts that will take place if a new budget plan cannot be agreed upon. Economists expect these cuts will send the US economy into another recession.

The Dow continues to show intermediate support with no news coming out of Washington. At this point we can expect a good rally if any favorable news is reported. The market seems to have discounted the fact that the two sides cannot agree on anything. Each side is actively pushing its own agenda.

Speaking on behalf of the President, White House Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced that the White House is prepared to "go over the cliff" if tax rates on the wealthiest individuals were not increased. Speaker Boehner simply stated there was no progress on talks. Boehner and the Republicans are pushing for spending cuts and no tax increases. Public opinion polls show that Americans are likely to blame the Republicans if no compromised is reached.

President Barack Obama and Congressional Speaker John Boehner represent each side of the ongoing negotiations.

Both sides need to be put in timeout

Just as the family that spends more than it makes, feels the pain when the electric company turns the power off, so the government may have to feel the pain of the automatic cuts before they are willing to make any serious progress.

DOW Showing Short Term Support.. But...

A review of last week's daily Dow Jones Industrial Average shows it has reached short term support at the 13,000 level. We may see a rally in the coming days... but..

{Someone once said, "Watch out for the 'big but'"}

The weekly Dow shows there is a lot of downside. It appears long-term support is somewhere near 11,800.

There are major problems worldwide that have not been dealt with. The United States and much of Europe is bankrupt. We cannot continue deficit spending at our present pace. The current posturing in the Middle East between Israel and its enemies is still always a concern. Fanaticism and religious persecution persist worldwide.

Specifically for the United States: There is no industrial base on which the United States can turn to lift itself out of a recessionary mode. Historically, the economy started to improve as factories called workers back to work. Today, much of its once mighty industrial base has been dismantled and sent overseas. A service economy is not broad enough to put enough workers back to work in order to make any meaningful difference. "Job creation" based on adding transfer payments to an already over burdened system will not work. The U.S. dollar remains the world's reserve currency and safe haven. This has been the primary reason we are not seeing the high levels of inflation which gold and other commodities are telling us.

Major social upheaval awaits the United States as the current generation has only known the concept of self-gratification. Most of the population in the U.S. considers it a "crisis" if their cable TV goes out. I attended a conference recently where the speaker stated "In ten years the population of the United States will be ungovernable and practically illiterate." They are totally unable to deal with any significant obstacles from which they have been protected from all of their lives. And the level of moral decay is shameful.

Specifically for Europe: The government-based social programs which take care of people "from the cradle to the grave" have grown so large that they are unsustainable. We are already seeing rioting in many parts of Europe as attempts are made to reduce some of these entitlement programs. Also, the European Union is barely holding together as hundreds of years of different cultural, social, and economic beliefs divide its membership.


In a few days the U.S. voters will go to the polls to select their candidate for the next four years. The United States is at a crossroads. Its people will either take the path toward further socialism with the present administration; or, a new administration will be chosen to attempt to jump start free enterprise and entrepreneurial thinking. Regardless of which party or set of ideals wins the election there is still rough sailing ahead.

Will God Continue to Bless America?

St. Paul's Church (Left-Center) is seen undamaged as rebuilding begins at Ground Zero.


In 1789, General George Washington took an oath to become the first elected President of the newly formed United States of America. During his inaugural speech he asked for a Divine blessing on this country. He stated "we ought not be no less persuaded that the smiles of Heaven can never be expected on a nation that disregards the eternal rules of order and right, which Heaven itself ordains."

Few people realize the capital of our newly formed republic was not yet in Washington, D.C. when this speech was given. The U.S. Capital was first located in New York City, near what is now lower Manhattan.

After his speech, President Washington and all members of Congress walked a few blocks to St. Paul's Cathedral where they went inside to pray. It was this same church that was spared from the devastation on 9/11 over 212 years later. Nearby buildings were completely destroyed by falling debris from the Twin Towers on that fateful day. But St. Paul's was miraculously protected by branches of a large Sycamore tree located in the church cemetary. Remnants of this tree were later put on display for everyone to see.

Biblical Words of Warning

Isaiah 9:10
"The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with dressed stone;
the fig trees (which is a type of sycamore) have been felled, but we will replace them with cedars."

This prophecy in the biblical book of Isaiah speaks of a defiant nation Israel, actually shaking its fist at God, saying, "We will rebuild better." Israel had turned its back toward God and was being warned. The nation was later conquered and taken into captivity losing its once-great-nation status. These same biblical words were uttered by Senator Tom Daschl on September 12, 2011 as he spoke to the world from the Congressional chamber in response to the 9/11 attacks. Similar words were again uttered by President Obama on June 15, 2012 during a speech to accept the Democratic Party's nomination of him as their candidate. Neither man seemed to be aware of the significance of the words which they were speaking. Coincidence? Probably not.

Prior to constructing the New World Trade Center a stone hewn from Adirondack rock (dressed stone) was delivered with an inscription that will be permanently set upon the site.

A beam with President Obama's written words and signature is being used to construct the 104th floor of the new World Trade Center Tower, scheduled to be completed in 2014. "We Remember. We Rebuild. We Come Back Stronger!"

The beam was installed on August 2, 2012.

One need not look far to realize how much further into moral decay our country has slipped since 9/11. God will judge our nation, just as He warned the nation Israel if they continued turning their backs toward Him. These are not merely coincidences. They are foretellings of what awaits our nation if we continue on this path of moral destruction.

I believe God will not continue to bless America if America does not bless God.